IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon for 2026, El Niño Raises Agriculture Concerns
New Delhi, May 29, KNT: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2026, warning that developing El Niño conditions could influence rainfall distribution and pose challenges for agriculture and water resources across the country.
The updated forecast has heightened concern among policymakers and the farming sector, given the critical role monsoon rains play in India’s agriculture-dependent economy.
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon season from June to September is expected to remain below the Long Period Average (LPA), with rainfall projected at around 90 to 92 percent of the seasonal average. The weather agency said the overall monsoon is most likely to fall in the “below normal” category.
The IMD’s forecast follows growing indications of El Niño development over the Pacific Ocean during the monsoon season, a climatic phenomenon often associated with weakened rainfall over parts of the Indian subcontinent. The department said evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions could affect both the spread and distribution of rainfall during key agricultural months.
Meteorologists noted that rainfall distribution remains as significant as total seasonal rainfall, particularly during July and August when sowing and crop growth activities reach peak levels.
The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall and remains central to agricultural output, groundwater recharge, and rural livelihoods. Any prolonged rainfall deficit or uneven distribution can directly affect crop production, especially in rain-fed farming regions.
Experts have warned that weaker monsoon conditions may place pressure on crops such as pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and non-irrigated rice while also raising concerns over food prices and inflation if rainfall shortfalls persist.
While weather officials stressed that seasonal forecasts are periodically updated and regional rainfall patterns may vary, the below-normal outlook has already triggered discussions around preparedness, water management, and contingency planning in agriculture-dependent states. [KNT]
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